If you haven’t reviewed your input costs recently, now is the time. The disruptions affecting global fertiliser and chemical supply in 2026 are real and for macadamia growers across Northern NSW and the Northern Rivers, the numbers have shifted significantly since the last industry benchmark report was published.
Fertiliser
Fertiliser is where the biggest exposure sits. Urea has risen approximately 72% from pre-conflict levels, sitting at around A$1,430–$1,440 per tonne as at early May 2026. The primary driver is the Strait of Hormuz closure since late February, which has disrupted a significant share of Australia’s urea import supply. China’s concurrent export restrictions have tightened global supply further.
Phosphate (MAP/DAP) is up around 12% since January, with further pressure likely. Sulphur is not just expensive – supply is genuinely constrained, with multiple export bans from major producing countries hitting simultaneously.
Potassium remains relatively stable, which is one of the few positives in the current picture.
For growers in the Lismore, Ballina and Yamba districts, the practical implication is straightforward: secure nitrogen and phosphate supply now. Availability is the issue, not just price. Your fertiliser program for the second half of the year needs to be locked in before pre-crisis stock runs out at the distributor level.
Chemical
The full price impact on crop chemicals hasn’t reached the farmgate yet, but it is coming. Around 70–80% of active ingredients used in Australian crop protection products originate from China and India, both exposed to higher freight and input costs. Chinese manufacturers have moved to monthly repricing, which removes the predictability growers have historically relied on.
Talk to your supplier now about second-half 2026 pricing and forward supply before new price lists apply. Pest and disease management programs that look affordable today may not carry the same budget line in three months.
Fuel, Labour and Machinery
Diesel peaked at $2.76 per litre in April before pulling back to around $2.25 per litre, partly due to a government excise reduction that expires 30 June. If you have on-farm storage, filling your tanks before that date is worth considering. The benchmark puts macadamia farms at an average 337 litres per hectare – at current pricing, that’s around $759 per hectare compared to $465 in the benchmark period.
Labour costs increase from 1 July with the Fair Work Commission wage review expected to land at 3.25–4%. It’s modest and predictable – update your payroll budgets once the decision is published in early June.
On machinery, the tractor market has softened and negotiating conditions have improved for buyers. Forward purchasing high turnover consumables – filters, belts, blades – before further parts price increases is sensible.
What This Means for Northern NSW Operations
The MC22000 Benchmark Report data shows Northern Rivers farms carry the lowest cost per hectare of any region, but above-average cost per tonne of kernel due to lower average yields. When input costs rise sharply, lower-yielding operations feel it more acutely. That dynamic matters for macadamia farm management decisions in this region right now.
The AUD has recovered to around USD 0.71–0.72, up more than 10% year-on-year. That’s a genuine partial offset to import cost pressures and without it the picture would look considerably worse.
The Bottom Line
On-farm costs increased by close to 80% over the decade to 2023. The 2026 supply disruptions have accelerated that trend. Some of these cost pressures are temporary and tied to the Hormuz situation – if shipping resumes, fertiliser and fuel should gradually ease. If it doesn’t, elevated costs are likely to carry through 2027.
Growers who plan procurement carefully over the next 60 days will be in a better position than those who wait.